World Energy Predictions 2006-2030

The World Energy Outlook (WEO) is a yearly energy forecast published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The 2006 report urges the international community to invest heavily in energy efficiency in order to avoid a global economic crisis. Governments will need to invest at least $20 billion into the energy infrastructure over the next 25 years to meet the growing worldwide demand for electronic technologies and gadgets. Demand for oil and energy resources from industrialized nations like China are expected to almost double by the year 2030. The report also predicts that many nations will increase their use of nuclear power to meet growing energy needs.
Thanks to the intergovernmental role of the IEA, the World Energy Outlook is in a unique position to provide objective energy analysis and energy projections covering the entire world, grouped as: OECD (USA, Canada, Mexico, EU, Japan, Korea, Oceania), Developing Countries (China, India, Indonesia, Latin America, Brazil, Middle East, Africa) and transition economies (Russia and eastern Europe).The report is sectioned into three main parts:1. Reference ScenarioThe Reference Scenario presents projections for supply and demand of oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear and electricity to 2030. It also assesses energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The projections incorporate the latest energy-market and price developments as well as macroeconomic conditions. It covers 21 separate regions and the world as a whole. Includes key assumptions, global energy trends, oil market outlook, gas market outlook, coal market outlook and power sector outlook.
2. Alternative Policy ScenarioThe Alternative Policy Scenario is built on policy measures such as energy efficiency and increased use of renewables and nuclear. The Alternative Policy Scenario contained in the WEO 2004 showed that there is a large scope for reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. To deepen the analysis of developing country potential, the WEO 2006 contains separate models and analysis for China, Russia, Brazil, India and Indonesia. The analysis also describes the cost implications of new policies. Outlines how to map a new energy future, assess the cost effectiveness of alternative policies, deepen global analysis by sector and how to go beyond the alternative policy scenario.
3. Focus on Key TopicsThis year’s report focuses on some key energy related topics. The report examines the global economic impact of high energy prices by looking at current trends in oil and gas investment. There is an emphasis on nuclear power and the likely worldwide expansion of this dangerous technology. Other key topics of the report is the potential of biofuels and energy for cooking in developing countries, as well as a focus on Brazil’s energy future.Some questions the 2006 report answers:
Is the economic reaction to high energy prices merely delayed?Is oil and gas investment on track?Are the conditions shaping up for a nuclear energy revival?Can biofuels erode the oil monopoly in road transport?Can 2.5 billion people in developing countries switch to modern energy for cooking?Is Brazil learning new lessons or teaching the world?
The WEO report contains two types of analysis:1. Detailed global energy projections covering supply and demand by fuel and sector to 2030 and beyond in even-numbered years. Also included are in-depth analysis on key countries: India, China, Russia and Brazil.
2. Special topics concentrating on timely issues and challenges facing the energy sector in odd-numbered years including: energy subsidies, uranium supply, hydrogen, CO2 sequestration, energy investment projections and the importance of the Middle East and North Africa region.
The IEA World Energy Outlook explores both possible energy futures: the under-invested, vulnerable and dirty future and the clean, clever and competitive future. It responds to the G8 by mapping a new energy future and contrasting it with current economic trends. The 2006 WEO report also shows how to change the energy economy and demonstrates the benefits of energy efficiency using extensive statistics, detailed projections, analysis and advice.Ordering Information: IEA Publications Bookshop